Prophecience. Or where are we headed?...

Prophecience: The science of prediction.

This E-Zine is an online magazine.

Here we look at current trends in a linear fashion to see were in the world we are heading. Prophecience projections are simple extensions of logic into the future. Like Trend Forecasting. There is a point where progressions break down? Complex systems may individually behave erratically but collectively over time get a life of predicable behavior. These deductions based on the result of following certain logical paths to their most likely outcome and what has happened in the past, in consideration of "Trigger" points that will affect the outcomes of the future. Some considerations in these future transformations are the possibilities from predictions in Prophecy.

Transformations do eventually break down often with disastrous results.

Let us search for practical answers.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is provided without any warranty, expressed or implied. All opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

2012 Hazards - Read First - LINK

Global Stewardship

This prediction comes from the most comprehensive analysis yet of the potential effects of human-made global warming. We expect that CO2 emissions will continue to increase for the next 40 years or so. Cause and effect seems obvious that the global temperature will incrementally rise. We can adapt in remarkable ways. But at what point if each year the average temperature rises .1F degree, then when does the growth of our food crops start suffering? The rise in average temperatures could cause a worldwide drop in cereal crops. How about the decrease of river flows from climate change? There could be shortages of fresh water supplies. In flooding zones the higher sea level may impede the function of the drainage systems. Adverse weather may become more extreme. Warming the planet and melting of ice could be unloading the Earths crust and may trigger earthquake and volcanic activity? Climate change is turning the oceans more acid in a trend that could endanger everything from clams to coral. Global sea levels would rise by 3 feet or more. Scientists say even if we stop the CO2 emissions; it would take many years to return to the pre-2000 year levels. Is there a solution to removing CO2 in the air that would bring the world to stability?

Methane CH4 is a trace constituent of the atmosphere. Methane is about 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide CO2. Man made sources include natural gas extraction and transportation (methane is the main component of natural gas) waste disposal, agriculture and coal mining. Methane is also released in significant amounts by marshland, rice paddies and by ruminant animals (e.g. cattle, sheep) and termites. Scientists believe that the sub-sea layer of permafrost, which has acted like a ”lid” to prevent gas from escaping, is softening and allowing methane to rise from underground deposits that were formed before the last ice age. Underground stores of methane are important because scientists believe their sudden release has in the past been responsible for rapid increases in global temperatures.

Forward Thinking

Lets do solar cells, wind energy, and electric hybrid cars.

Every flat roof is an ideal place for installation of banks of solar cells.

Solar cells reduce the strain on the electric grid.

Solar energy where excess production can be sold back to utilities.

Water projects, even globally to provide better management of water in arid areas to mitigate desertification.

Flood management projects to mitigate the effects from global warming. Making taller and stronger dams and seawalls, rerouting water systems, restricting certain developments, improving flood control, building canals. Improve building standards for the anticipation of destructive weather conditions.

Projects to mitigate expected water shortages in farming areas.

Engineer cities to prevent expected rise in heat-related deaths from heatstroke.

Stop postal mail service on Saturdays to save fuel and emissions.

Convert light commercial vehicles like Taxis, Postal Trucks, Busses to run on cleaner natural gas.

Return Blue-Laws where businesses and public transportation are closed on Sundays to save on energy and emissions.

Yearly home and commercial property inspections for energy efficiency standards.

Switching to LED lighting, and that will account for tremendous energy savings and maintenance savings.

Require all new appliances to be Energy Star Compliant.

End the corn-ethanol support systems. Until cellulose ethanol production is feasible, our current corn-ethanol subsidies are a poor investment economically and environmentally. U.S. Congress has provided a subsidy for ethanol production in the amount of $0.51 per gallon. It takes about 320 ears of harvested corn to put one gallon of ethanol in your car, and there are tariffs to keep foreign producers out of the U.S. market. In Brazil, the ethanol is produced from sugarcane and is far more efficient energy wise. Instead of $0.51 per gallon subsidy for ethanol, how about a subsidy replacement for solar cell cost and installations that would be more permanent?

The challenge for Earths inhabitants in order to survive, is to become efficient enough to maintain current lifestyle while using 50% less carbon based energy. This can be done.

Financial Catastrophe or The Global Financial Hurricane

Year 2000 about 11.3% of Americans were living in poverty.

Year 2008 about 13.2% of Americans were living in poverty.

Year 2009 about 14.3% of Americans were living in poverty.

Year 2010 about 15.6% of American were living in poverty.

Year 2011 about 19.0% of Americans were living in poverty.

Year 2012 estimated 28% of Americans will be living in poverty?

A good analogy to the global economic crisis is a slow-moving hurricane that, once over warm water, gains energy. Right now global monetary debt is a huge storm, slowly circling off your proverbial coast where it is gathering strength from billions of dollars being fed into it daily by governments desperate to avoid economic collapse... and as a result pricing decisions having to be made by everyone from manufacturers to local shop keepers and down to you and me, trying to cover rising costs. At this point the skies are dark, the wind is rising, and the torrential rains are beginning to sweep in. The pouring rains are drenching job creation. Some workers are told to stay home until the storm blows over. Cupboards once full are getting bare. The radio is broadcasting warnings to move to higher ground. No gas in car to leave town and there is no higher ground, so be quiet, stay put. But when it arrives, it will be a Category 5 and maybe worse. Dirty water is seeping into the basement.

The straight-up consequences of the governments monetary prolificacy and businesses raising prices to try and stay afloat, and there is something else feeding power to the perfect storm... something we have been warning about for years now: the rising odds that the great institution of global fiat currency system might fail. The levee of Gold and Silver long since replaced by paper and glue of red ink, is soggy and leaking. Shore up the levee with more War money. Our civil engineers of special interest groups say not to worry. Businesses; are shuttering because the lack of consumer strength. Could rising fuel prices be choking consumer spending? Bankruptcies, debt defaults, foreclosures, job erosion, bank failures, feeding greater into the storms strength. Lightning and thunder; your roof contract is about to expire. Use your credit card to stock up on food. The media says it’s not that bad, don’t worry, it will pass soon, you can survive this......Lets talk sports.

The Beginning: Large corporations hiring special interest advocates or lobbyists started in the early 1960s. The Vietnam War gave incredible power to the Corporate Military Industrial Complex and strengthened those lobbyists in the Government. In the 1970s Nixon removed the last link between the dollar and gold. This allowed unrestrained military/social spending through money printing and borrowing. This caused mild dislocations, but eventually with each cycle greater disruptive economic conditions of boom and bust. Each cycle bringing higher taxes and larger Government. Start of the manufacturing exodus out of the U.S. By 1985 the United States started to become a net debtor to the world.

Clinton presidency from 1993 to 2001 included a great period of economic growth in Americas history. Bill Clinton, who actually reduced the federal deficit as a portion of GDP, and when he left office, the Congressional Budget Office projected an $800 billion dollar yearly budget surplus for the years 2009 to 2012. America had full employment, controlled Federal spending and capital flows into the private sector.

Bush presidency from 2001 to 2009 now concludes war, inflation, economic dislocations from bank failures, deficit spending, doubling of the national debt, political disturbances, an energy crisis. The foundation is being laid for a default of U.S. Treasures, and the collapse of the U.S. Dollar?

Obama presidency from 2009 to 2012 Our U.S. Treasury debt exceed that which the Bush term. U.S. Government public debt load will exceed the $18 Trillion mark. Treasury auctions have come under particularly close scrutiny since global investors began to question the longevity of the United States prized AAA credit rating. Foreign investors are now questioning the future worthiness of the value of the USD and starting to take action.

Post U.S. Debt Defaults: Welcome the new U.S. currency, the "New Liberty Dollar"

2010 Predictions: The Year of Degradation: We predict a year of more stress on all fronts; economic, weather, infrastructure, and social segments. U.S. Government Treasury debt load will well exceed the $14 Trillion mark. Official unemployment will be cheered because of a drop, but many have lost benefits and will not considered statically. Few that will get new employment will be at significant income drop and most at very different work as had before. Gold will average $1300 an ounce. Regular gasoline in most areas will be over $3 a gallon. U.S. Defense Department is asking for increase in moneys for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Consumer spending is lackluster. Congress is discussing stimulus package with tax breaks. States will have to raise fees as increase in taxes. Congress continued impasse on the health care debate, but eventually will pass. GDP was 2.2% for 4th quarter 2009 and will average 2.5% for rest for year. Manufacturing expanded slightly, inflation rising. In the world of competitive devaluation the U.S. will win and have a lower relative value compared to other currencies. The American standard of living will still take a hit. The U.S. banking system solvency will not improve by much. Your average American loathes the banks, so look for a continued slow run on the banks and into Credit Unions and Financial Service Companies. Huge numbers of working people will just quit the work world. Good workers mostly in the private sector will want to work but can not find work, so they will just quit. They will seek early retirement even meaning smaller payments or the younger crowd will move in with relatives and make ends on nothing. So many will live on the streets and tent cities foraging food from dumpsters, food stamps and church handouts. More people filed for Social Security in 2009, 2.74 million, more than any year in history, The greatest wealth destruction in the history of America. For many people around the world economic and social conditions will continue to deteriorate in 2010.

Degradation of Employment in US.....LINK

2011 Predictions: The Year of Grand Slams #1 Option ARM resets in 2011. Most of these homeowners are selecting the minimum payments and negatively amortizing. Many more homeowners will be upside down when the ARM resets. Foreclosures abound. Home prices will continue to fall in most cities. #2 Increase in taxes, as local Governments make up for shortfalls including cutbacks, layoffs at all levels. #3 Over 1 million newly unemployed and many loosing job benefits and few jobs to be found. #4 Quantitative Easing QE by the Federal Reserve means accelerated fiat money printing and higher prices. Prices inflating everywhere, especially food and fuel, most noticed. #5 Price of regular gasoline over $4 a gallon. #6 U.S. government lost its AAA bond rating.

Recession conditions everywhere. Temporarily the job picture may only improve slightly, as so many try to adjust. The U.S. government has reached a terminal phase of the debt spiral that it is trapped in, and the only way to keep the system going is to print more money. No relief on interest for credit cards, this will also exacerbate consumer weakness. Huge Federal deficits and rising interest rates will continue depression like conditions. Government instituting much stricter capital controls. Radical weather effects and a multitude of social stresses increase Globally. Unusual weather in U.S. will affect food production. Outsourcing of U.S. jobs will continue. Capital is flowing out of the U.S. as America is hollowed out. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse will arrive someday. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption that is self perpetuating will correct itself.

Red Alert: Despite the media playing down the repercussions, the 9.0 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear power calamity will have great implications in Japan. This will have a negative ripple effect throughout the world.

Fukushima, Japan Nuclear Disaster News.....LINK

Notes Collected on Radiation and Effects in U.S. and Japan

2012 Predictions: The Year of Fear: All eyes watching if Prophecies of 2012 come true. A eerie anticipation as MOS principle is in effect. MOS is More Of the Same. Stresses on all levels increase. Conflicts building. The U.S. Dollar will officially no longer be the Worlds Reserve Currency and very few U.S. citizens will understand why. Weather turning unusually more extreme. People reaching hysteria. Erratic behaviors. Hording and fear and protectionism abounds. Poverty increases. Gasoline over $5 a gallon.

Capital flight into government debt is crowding out private investment. This is the major part of what is prolonging the depression. Instead of cash flows financing economic recovery through investment in new ventures, projects and economic efficiencies, financial dealers are instead simply financing the growth of government. This only further dampens the private economy and forms the vicious cycle that is sure to keep the economy in a deepening recession. Declining wage growth is impairing the ability of borrowers to service their current debts.

What Will Amerika Do To Prevent The Collapse of The USD?.....LINK

What to Expect When Greece Defaults.....LINK

2014 Predictions: The Year of The Big Zeros: Financial annihilation arrives. The U.S. Economic Globalization goes Zero. Money velocity goes to Zero. Commerce Zero. Food production Zero. Police and social infrastructure Zero. Militaries fighting new wars, and confiscating resources. Foreign Goverments loathe to help Amerika because the way the Government has removed the Constitutional Rights of its citizens and lost its moral compass.

Why was the recovery from the Great Depression so slow? It is now understood that tax increases do not promote efficient recovery during a contraction. By reducing households disposable income, it led to a reduction in household spending and a further contraction in economic growth.

Why banks are boosting credit card interest rates and fees?

Tommy was shocked when his bank nearly doubled his credit card interest rate this year, to 27%, for no apparent reason. A customer representative told him the law allowed the bank to do so, and that was all the justification it needed.

"I never missed a payment" says Tommy, who owes about $5,000 on the credit card. "The bank is just looking for a reason to maximize profits."

Banks fleecing the remaining good customers to cover the losses in derivatives, bankruptcies.

There were, once upon a time, Usury Laws that generally held any interest rate greater than 10% was illegal. The last usury laws were removed back in 1980s.

Politics Today:

Pandering to powerful special interest groups to the behest of the middle class has caused financial instability. Fiat money empowers corporatism and the elites, but distorts the benefit of capital from working citizens. The power elite has put the system into tremendous jeopardy. The only way to solve the problem is to break the strangle-hold that the banks and the multinational companies have on congress.

The Glass-Steagall Act, passed in 1933, mandated the separation of commercial banks and investment brokerages in order to protect depositors from the hazards of risky investment and speculation. The old order worked fine for fifty years until the banking industry began lobbying for its repeal during the 1980s. This led to the creation of Derivatives and is part of the foundation for the banking crisis.

In the political news and distortions from Congress cause Americans to be increasingly skeptical of and even cynical about their political institutions and leaders. Once people lose faith in the political system, they are less likely to vote, less willing to pay taxes to support government, less motivated to run for office themselves and as sociologists say even less likely to get involved in their own communities.

Do not say "we" as in " living beyond our means" The most productive, and most educated people in society, the middle class, who produce more than they consume and saved the difference in investments. We worked and some borrowed to adjust to the loss of the standard of living. Now say; the "entity" the U.S. government. Americans have to learn that the government is no longer "us". Its a wealth sucking entity that has its own interests, its own life. How many times have the government passed resolutions even when the majority voting public was against it? Many state governments have succeeded in scrapping the union rights of state workers. Is the U.S. government going to enforce the Constitution and take a stand against this?

Banks and Wall Street - Derivatives:

Warren Buffett’s famous quote ”Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.”

Financial chaos, primarily an American export. At the heart of the matter is the incredible growth of debt and leverage in the financial markets, which went into overdrive in the past ten years. Derivatives scarcely existed 15 years ago; today they total about $600 trillion. By comparison the worlds GDP is less than $60 trillion and the capitalization of all the worlds stock markets is less than $50 trillion.

The total U.S. finance amount of outstanding Derivatives in all categories is now approximately $900 trillion as of 2009.

Two thirds of contracts by volume are the category of Interest Rate Derivatives.

Outstanding were $420 trillion for OTC interest rate contracts, and $330 trillion for OTC interest rate swaps.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) had a national volume of $50 trillion.

Credit-Default Swaps are used to speculate on the ability of companies or governments to repay their debt and offer a benchmark for pricing securities. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

When ARMs began resetting, and working homeowners lost their jobs there were defaults. At the same time the housing market was cooling off and the economy was stalling out. More and more people were trapped in a situation where they owed more on their home than they could sell it for. Many simply mailed their keys to the bank and moved on.

All of this wreaked havoc in the derivatives market. Sellers of these exotic packages could no longer establish what they were worth. Buyers could not determine a fair price and so stopped buying. As the ripples spread through the worlds financial system, trust disappeared and liquidity dried up. Monetary deflation.

Currency Derivatives reached a volume of $50 trillion.

Unallocated Derivatives are at a national amount of $70 trillion.

Consumers driving the economy. While in the past credit cards were used primarily to purchase big ticket items, spreading out costs over many months, they are now increasingly used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been flogged mercilessly by inflation and higher taxes. Higher interest rates on Credit Cards from troubled banks trying to recoup losses. Higher taxes from shortfalls, deficits, war spending. Higher prices in utilities from the energy crisis. The consumer, if they still have a job is loosing purchasing power, discretionary income, and the ability to put away savings. It should be painfully obvious that expanded consumer debt was not evidence of economic improvement, but simply, deterioration. Loss of purchasing power is a price paid by the citizenry for the fiscal irresponsibility of its government.

Monetary Deflation crushes everybody:

Unemployment and The Domino Effect....

Because as each worker pulls back, he takes something away from the other fellows around him. He walks to work rather than taking a taxi, and then the taxi driver has less revenue. He tells his son: ”If you want groceries, you have to get on your bicycle and go pick it up yourself and go for the cheapest.” Others then too have less money. So then the taxi company has to go into crisis mode too; and the pizza business and the auto business...and all the other businesses, and the investors. Pretty soon, everybody is conserving money and not spending, many raising prices to make up for the loss in sales. That is what frugality is; not giving other people your money you do not have. But then all are forced into frugality too.

Slowly Imploding U.S. Economy:

The layoffs lead to insecurity and fear. Less purchasing power, because the price of necessities, fuel, food, medical care are increasing. Investments with poor returns. Companies shrink and small businesses close. The brutal self feeding cycle of deflation that sent the U.S. into the Great Depression in the 1930s is looking similar.

U.S. Economic Malaise:

After WWII, the U.S. was the worlds manufacturing powerhouse, as our continent was unscathed by the ravages of war and the military industrial machine was running at maximum efficiency. That however has changed over time, Government policy transformed the economic landscape. This forced thousands of corporations succumb to the pressures of improving their bottom lines in a global competitive system. Entire sectors were crushed: U.S. Manufacturing, Steel, Technical services, Administrative call centers, Research; Technology and numerous others are now outsourced overseas. Good wages and along with it a robust tax base.

Local Governments on all levels are going broke, and we hear about it in the form of budget cuts, which means local government workers are losing their jobs. Estimate: 2 Million.

A new milestone! Tuesday, January 5, 2010: American-Government Jobs have overtaken American-Goods-Producing Jobs.

The manufacturing industry has shed hundreds of thousands of jobs during this recession as plants have closed. Manufacturing, which typically offered more generous benefits, accounts for less than 9 percent of payrolls in 2009, down from 19 percent in 1982. In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

When a business sheds jobs and when the economy improves, then the business may rehire. But when a business closes, then the potential of rehiring is gone, and the whole country becomes weaker. Even in ideal times it takes many months or years to start a new business. So relative to past recessions, this one will be prolonged because of so many closed businesses and factories. Just a quick drive around and see so many empty commercial properties where once a thriving business was.

There will be no recovery until the purchasing power and job opportunities of the American citizen improve dramatically.

Forward Thinking

Cut Government spending first. See this.....LINK

Stop Government deficit spending.

Start paying off the U.S. debt.

Restore credibility of the USD.

A 25% cut in all Federal Government worker salaries.

At a time when workers pay and benefits have stagnated, federal employees average compensation has grown to more than double what private sector workers earn. Federal workers have been awarded bigger average pay and benefit increases than private employees for nine years in a row. The compensation gap between federal and private workers has doubled in the past decade. Federal civil servants earned average pay and benefits of $123,049 in 2009 while private workers made $61,051 in total compensation, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Stop the outsourcing of jobs from America to other countries that do not pay taxes into the U.S. and stop the tax breaks that are given to these companies for the purpose of outsourcing.

Close corporate tax loopholes that encourage the off shoring of jobs.

Reduce the capital gains tax.

Full disclosure, where all Derivatives are exchange listed and regulated.

Register and tax Derivatives to the point where they are eliminated.

Energy independence, not dependence. Green jobs here in the U.S.

Sales tax on Stock purchases on U.S. Exchanges paid to the U.S. Government.

No tax exemption except for religious Churches.

Keep a stable USD Index where exports grow.

Turn trade deficits into trade surplus.

Tax imports.

Bring back the Usury Laws.

Federal law to limit Credit Card interest to 3% above Treasury Bill rate.

Outlaw ARMs, and reset all current ARMs to favorable fixed rate.

Local credit markets can be revitalized by establishing state-owned banks and once very successful can be privatized.

Create National Recruitment Job Centers to link jobs to those who need work. Just show up get processed and you are assigned a job. Guaranteed work for each citizen.

Lower corporate tax rate, now the U.S. has the highest corporate tax rate in the industrialized world.

Faster business write-off schedule for capital investment.

Smaller Governments. Federal, State and Local.

Return the Glass-Steagall Act.

If its status becomes ”Too Big To Fail” then Divestiture is the answer.

Progressive tax on excessive E-mails. Prevent spam which is chocking normal internet traffic flow. Levy tax at hosting sites. Block E-mails where tax is uncollected.

Remove the cap on earnings subject to Social Security taxes, currently $102,000 a year.

Federal flat income tax for all income brackets. Less tax may mean higher revenue.

Eliminate all Congressional earmarks.

Eliminate farm subsidies.

Lift regulatory burdens on business.

Eliminate taxes where cost of collection exceeds revenue benefits.

Offer retired struggling rent paying couples foreclosed homes at no cost. Their Social Security spending may revive the local depressed economies and bring some security to an area. Instead of bulldozing homes in Detroit, the depressed city areas could be transformed into retirement communities.

Lets talk JOB creation, in the private sector that creates real wealth and greater working opportunities, so we can afford better standard of living, more savings. U.S. Government budget surpluses combined with restrained government spending will result in rising GDP, full employment, greater global prosperity and a stronger America.

Any sustainable economic rebound will be a rebound in real production. Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good. The best solution would be to cut taxes in order to stimulate private sector growth and at the same time to reduce federal spending in order to bring down public sector obligations. However, the exact opposite method is currently being employed. Increased factory capacity utilization improves employment, spurs new investment which in turn spurs finance, infrastructure resource investments and thus feeds the demand for corporate services and other ”soft” services in the industry. Without this we will see a protracted high percentage of unemployment and continuance of economic deterioration.

Most of what your are seeing everywhere, and on the news, are the symptoms of America gone bankrupt.

HOPE: There has to be a happy carefully controlled middle ground where a monetary policy condition without Deflation. Neither Inflation where prices are quickly rising. An economic climate where new businesses start up and others grow. One tenet of capitalism is that all debts are repaid with fair interest with return of value to the respect and satisfaction of the lender. In this world of incredible computing power we should be able to track every dollar and determine the correct "monetary metrics" for proper business health, jobs and good commerce.

A paradigm shift.

Good News Report.....LINK

Last Word.....LINK

I hope you enjoy this E-Zine.